In recent studies published by the Norwegian Railway Directorate, it was noted that rising demand for both passenger and freight transport is expected to accelerate in Norway in the coming decades, driven by population growth leading up to 2050. At the same time, stricter climate and environmental targets are placing pressure on the transport sector to reduce emissions and land use. According to Norway Railway Director Anne Iren Fagerbakke, expanding railway capacity will be critical to meeting these challenges.
The groundwork for future policy is being shaped by three transport studies conducted by the Norwegian Railway Directorate, which will inform the next National Transport Plan scheduled for presentation in 2028. These three studies collectively outline how rail can support both mobility needs and environmental ambitions.
One of the three studies focuses on long-distance train services, assessing how improvements can shift travel patterns from air to rail. It highlights reduced travel times and increased departures as the most effective ways to attract passengers on key intercity routes.
The analysis within the three transport studies identifies Oslo–Bergen as a priority corridor, where enhanced comfort, pricing strategies, and frequency improvements could significantly increase rail usage.
Another of the three transport studies examines freight transport, emphasizing rail’s advantages for long-distance container movement and bulk goods such as ore and timber. The findings point to strong growth potential on high-volume routes through 2050.
This work also incorporates assessments of military and civilian emergency preparedness, highlighting the strategic importance of the Ofot and Meråker lines, cross-border links in Eastern Norway, and north-south corridors for supply security.
The final component of the three transport studies centers on Eastern Norway, where population density and employment concentration are highest. With around 185,000 daily passengers moving in and out of Oslo each day, rail capacity is already stretched during peak hours.
To meet future demand, the study outlines both planned upgrades and long-term infrastructure needs, including a proposed national tunnel between Oslo S and Lysaker, which could be completed by 2052.
