According to the report’s authors, decarbonizing the maritime industry would result in a notable rise in expenses. It is predicted that by 2050, the cost of marine transportation would increase by 69–75% for bulk ships, 70–86% for tankers, and 91–112% for container shipping. The authors explicitly state that end users will probably be charged for these expenses.
The complete decarbonization of marine transportation is still a long way off despite these obstacles. According to DNV experts, depending on advancements in energy efficiency, the sector’s need for alternative fuels might vary from 9 to 55 Mtoe (megatonnes of oil equivalent) by 2030. However, it is anticipated that between 44 and 62 Mtoe of alternative fuels would be produced globally in 2024, making it almost difficult for marine transportation to get sufficient supplies of these fuels.
At sea, decarbonization is still in its early stages.
By gross tonnage, only 7.4% of ships operating worldwide as of June 2024 run their main engines on alternative fuels. With the order of new ships, things are a little better: according to the DNV study, 49.5% of the planned gross tonnage will be powered by alternative fuels. These numbers for the previous year were 6.5% and 51.3%, respectively, showing a little rise in the amount of alternative fuels now used by the fleet but a minor decline in the amount to be used in the future.
The situation is quite different when tonnage is not taken into consideration. While 27% of the next boats are anticipated to operate on alternative fuels, just 2% of the present fleet does. In other words, conventional fuels are still used by 73% of ships that are on order and 98% of ships that are at sea.
As an alternative, however
The research highlights how slowly real decarbonization is happening. The most popular option, albeit still a fossil fuel, is a less carbon-intensive hydrocarbon fuel for ships using alternative propulsion.
In maritime freight, dual-fuel systems are becoming increasingly prevalent. Liquid natural gas, or LNG, is often used as the second fuel. Nevertheless, LNG is still a fossil fuel, as the paper points out. DNV estimates that 30% of the world’s fleet is accountable for 80% of CO2 emissions.
Positively, the study notes that orders for ships running on LPG and methanol have increased, and interest in ammonia as a fuel for the future has grown.
Methanol use in container ships
At the moment, 2,357 ships using alternative fuels are at sea. Of these, 1,239—or more over half—run on LNG, which is obviously not a real substitute. Almost one thousand (mostly ferries) are electric or hybrid boats. Currently, just one ship runs on ammonia and thirty-five operate on methanol. 6.65% of ships that use alternative fuels depend on LNG in terms of tonnage.
Interest in methanol as a propulsion source is growing, especially for cargo ships. With 35 boats, it only makes up 0.09% of the total tonnage of the global fleet at the moment, but with 234 vessels—of which 173 are container ships—under construction, it represents 9.68% of the tonnage on order. Of the 832 ships that are supposed to run on LNG, container ship operators have ordered 171 of them.
Alternatives to decarbonization
Unconventional fuel boats currently have a long way to go before they become the majority of the fleet. Ship owners and operators will need to come up with other strategies to cut emissions in the meantime. Perhaps there’s an answer in new technology. Fuel consumption may be decreased with the use of information technology, artificial intelligence, and vessel tracking systems to optimize cargo transit and vessel movements.
The research, which is yet upbeat, projects that by 2030, fuel-efficient fleet management and technology may cut emissions by 4–16%. An estimated 40 million tons of emissions would be avoided if 2,500 of the biggest ships converted to fuel that is carbon neutral.
